Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Bunds may be contained in the near-term following the squeeze higher to overshoot area as summer EGB supply dries up before the resumption of the sell-off; supply turns positive this week from the most negative week of the summer, before turning close to flat for the reminder of August.

• Second half of August will see focus on the return of supply in Sept. and the next major event risks (Jackson Hole on Aug. 24-26 and ECB meeting on Sept. 7) which may see downside bund skew richen ahead of the resumption of the sell-off toward 0.72%; see chart here of October skewed (expiry Sept. 22) toward downside
  • Overshoot target area was reached last week as expected (see here), where bund futures squeezed higher to 163.50 area (0.449%) before fading; see chart here
• NOTE: While the fair value for bunds was only modestly rich prior to Sintra (vs extreme valuations prior to 2015 bund VaR shock), a further selloff toward 70bps area may see bund cheapness stretched given diminishing inflation risk
• NOTE: Positive carry trades in vogue throughout August, with peripherals favored, while hedging via swap spreads may increase as consensus builds; see more here
• NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

To contact the reporter on this story: Tanvir Sandhu in London at tsandhu17@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Neil Chatterjee