HALISTER1: Buy Contingent 10Y USD Gamma Receivers with EUR/USD Knock-In: DB

Buy Contingent 10Y USD Gamma Receivers with EUR/USD Knock-In: DB

(Bloomberg) -- Recommend contingent receivers in 10Y USD gamma which knock in when EUR/USD touches 1.05, as a hedge against excessive weakening of the euro, Deutsche Bank strategist Aleksandar Kocic writes in a client note.
  • USD 3M10Y ATMF receivers subject to (continuous) KI at EUR/USD = 1.05; offer 56.5c, a 65% discount to vanilla at 160c
  • EUR above 1.15 is bad for euro-area growth and would, most likely, imply additional ECB accommodation with lower EUR rates and further support for U.S. duration as a consequence
  • Below 1.05, USD becomes too strong and obstructs Fed’s resolve to hike, forcing further delays
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Aleksandar Kocic (Deutsche Bank AG)

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