HALISTER1: Buy Receiver Spreads in EUR 10Y Tail on Vol Cheapness: SocGen

Buy Receiver Spreads in EUR 10Y Tail on Vol Cheapness: SocGen

(Bloomberg) -- Set-up conditional EUR trades at attractive prices as low-for-long and secular stagnation themes continue to gain credence, contributing to low expected rates volatility, Societe Generale strategist Adam Kurpiel writes in client note.
  • Buy EUR 3m10y ATMF/ATMF-17bp receiver spread
    • 17bp spread corresponds to 1.5x the range volatility of the EUR 10y rate (11bp/3-mo.)
    • With premium below 7bp running (indicative), EUR 10y swap rate needs to decrease by less than 3bp for the strategy to breakeven
    • Better leverage than simple receivers unless bund 10y yield goes deeply negative
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Adam Kurpiel (Societe Generale SA)

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