HALISTER1: Canada GDP Beat Reduces Near-Term Chances of BOC Rate Cut: CIBC

Canada GDP Beat Reduces Near-Term Chances of BOC Rate Cut: CIBC

(Bloomberg) -- CIBC now sees upward pressure to BOC’s 1.5% GDP forecast after September GDP tops estimates, economist Nick Exarhos writes in note.
  • Bullish for CAD, bearish for front end of curve
  • “It’s worth noting that the beat in September was driven by a two-tick contribution from mining/oil and gas, which tends to be a more volatile category”
  • NOTE: Bloomberg’s WIRP function now shows 6.1% chance of BOC rate cut at March meeting vs 12% yday
  • Earlier, CAD Gains With WTI on OPEC; Canada GDP Rises 0.3% in Sept.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Nick Exarhos (CIBC World Markets Inc)

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