Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- China’s June manufacturing PMI could put downward pressure on Asian currencies if reading shows contraction following 50.1 figure in May, Bloomberg analysis suggests.

• More central banks are likely to ease monetary policy if PMI is below 50, OCBC Bank economist Tommy Xie says
  • Low reading would have negative impact on Asian FX near term
• PMI due July 1, 9am local time
• Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index has tracked movements in China PMI; see chart for past three years here
• Last time PMI went from 50 or above to contraction m/m was in Aug., when reading was 49.7 vs 50.0 in July; ADXY then fell 0.32% in Sept.
• PMI new orders component, a gauge of Chinese factory demand, also seen moving in line with ADXY, see chart here
• ADXY is down 0.9% since result of Brexit vote Friday
• Median est. in Bloomberg survey for June PMI is 50.0; ests. range from 49.8 to 50.4
  • 8 of 28 economists in survey forecast reading below 50