HALISTER1: CHINA PREVIEW: CPI Seen Rising to 22-Month High on Food Prices

CHINA PREVIEW: CPI Seen Rising to 22-Month High on Food Prices

(Bloomberg) -- China’s consumer prices likely rose in March at fastest pace since May 2014 as food inflation climbed to a four-year high, according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • CPI gained 2.4% y/y last month after a 2.3% increase in Feb., according to median est. in survey; ests. range from +2.0% to +3.0%; data due at 9:30am local time on April 11
  • Bloomberg’s China food inflation tracker rose 7.87% in March, highest since Jan. 2012, after 4.64% advance in Feb.; CPI and food inflation tracker have had a correlation of 0.944 since 2009
  • ING expects March CPI data to mimic what was observed in Korea and Taiwan, which were hit with same kind of food supply shocks, according to note dated today; ING has raised its 2016 CPI inflation forecast to 2.0% from 1.5% previously
  • Producer prices probably fell 4.6% y/y in March after a 4.9% drop in Feb., a separate survey shows; this data also due at 9:30am local time on April 11
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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