HALISTER1: China’s Manufacturing Bottomed, PBOC to Hold Interest Rate: ANZ

China’s Manufacturing Bottomed, PBOC to Hold Interest Rate: ANZ

(Bloomberg) -- September Caixin Manufacturing PMI reading signals China’s manufacturing sector has bottomed, says Raymond Yeung, greater China chief economist at ANZ.
  • China Sept. official PMI likely to stay expansionary and may beat ANZ est. of 50.3
  • PBOC to keep interest rates on hold without any more aggressive easing, says Yeung
    • Sees 7-day repo rate stay at 2.25%
  • Sept. industrial production and retail sales data to remain resilient, indicating downside risk for growth subsiding
    • Forecasts 2016 GDP growth at 6.7%
  • NOTE: Sept. Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.1 from 50.0 in Aug.
    • Official PMI is due 9am tomorrow, est. 50.5 vs 50.4 prior
  • PBOC seen switching to broad monetary tightening as soon as 2017; story here
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Raymond Yeung (Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd)

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