Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects month in second-last bullet.) AUD/NZD dip to 1.0845 on Monday may be the low for May should New Zealand’s unemployment rate due Wednesday fail to repeat the previous quarter’s return, writes Bloomberg strategist, Michael G Wilson.

• 1Q unemployment rate seen rising to 5.5% from 5.3% in 4Q 2015, according to median est. of 14 economists in Bloomberg survey; range: 5.4% to 5.7%, data due at 10:45am Wellington
  • NOTE: Jobless rate had dropped to lowest since 1Q 2009 in the fourth quarter, surprising economists who had expected a rise
• An increase to 5.6% or more may bring pressure on NZD on expectations RBNZ may consider cutting rates
  • NOTE: RBNZ says last week that it may cut rate; Deputy Governor Bascand says April 7 that stronger-than- expected labor supply is a factor for accommodative monetary policy
• AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0897, just below the 1.0900 100-DMA,

it closed all of March & April above this moving average

• Risk to view would be RBA cutting at today’s meeting

Story Link:NSN O6KVP06JIJVB