HALISTER1: Credit Suisse Like RUB in EM FX, Recommends OFZ Steepener

Credit Suisse Like RUB in EM FX, Recommends OFZ Steepener

(Bloomberg) -- Despite rally vs dollar in recent weeks, RUB still looks more attractive than most other EM FX, Credit Suisse analyst Kasper Bartholdy says in research note.
  • NOTE: RUB is +3.5% vs dollar in last month, best among 24 EM FX tracked by Bloomberg
  • RUB offers combination of high real yield, strong current account
  • RUB looks “cheaper” than most EM FX on 5-year REER
  • RUB has additional support from possibility of moderately positive trend in oil prices in coming weeks
  • While Russian XCCY curve is “exceptionally inverted,” Russian bond curve largely flat in swaps
    • CS recommends 19s/28s steepener in OFZ bonds
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
4458Z RU (Russian Federation)

People
Kasper Bartholdy (Credit Suisse International)

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