HALISTER1: Deutsche Bank Sees 10-Yr Treasury Yield at 3.0%-3.5% by Year-End

Deutsche Bank Sees 10-Yr Treasury Yield at 3.0%-3.5% by Year-End

(Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank sees 10-year German yields at around 1% by end-2017, Global Head of Credit Strategy Jim Reid says in a conference in Istanbul late Thursday.
  • Expects U.S. President Donald Trump to be fiscally “quite aggressive”
    • Fiscal spending will rise under Trump presidency and this is supportive of global growth in the short term; net result is that global fixed-income yields will go higher in 2017
  • ECB is moving toward tapering; progressive slowing of QE in 2H of 2017 will pressure European yields
  • French, Italian, Dutch elections this year will create volatility, but all will have a “pro-European outcome”
    • Le Pen is unlikely to win the second round vote in France; chances of winning are less than 10%
  • Skeptical about Europe’s ability to stay in the single currency over the next five years; says Europe needs a fiscal union for the single currency to stay together
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
DBK GR (Deutsche Bank AG)
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Donald Trump (United States of America)
Jim Reid (Deutsche Bank AG)
Marine Le Pen (Natl Front Party)

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