HALISTER1: EM Currencies Mixed as Stocks Gain Before Yellen: Inside Asia

EM Currencies Mixed as Stocks Gain Before Yellen: Inside Asia

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging Asian currencies are trading mixed ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Korean won strengthens on likely dollar selling by exporters, while the Philippine peso drops. The MSCI EM Asia Index of shares rises for a fourth day, set for its longest run of gains since mid-May, while government bonds are largely steady. “Currencies are broadly steady with weaker bias as Fed’s Dudley attempted to downplay the soft U.S. inflation recently,” says Ken Cheung, a currency strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong. “The market is awaiting Yellen’s speech tonight and the Asian FX market should remain largely calm given a light data calendar.” The dollar touched a five-week high versus the yen as Yellen leads a slate of speakers from the U.S. central bank this week. WHAT TO WATCH:
  • For more data and events, see Asia Daybook
  • Indonesia, Malaysia closed for holidays
CHINA:
  • Yuan is steady onshore; 10-year government bonds gain while the Shanghai Composite Index is little changed
  • PBOC weakens yuan daily reference rate by 0.11% to 6.8292 per dollar, the weakest since May 31
    • Skips open market operations for third day
  • Aberdeen Asset Management is waiting for a bigger correction in longer- dated China onshore bonds before adding positions, according to Edmund Goh, a fixed-income investment manager
  • Both the short- and long-ends of China’s onshore bond curve are attractive, according to Freddy Wong, a portfolio manager at Fidelity
  • May industrial profits rise 16.7% on better global demand
  • Read: China debt squeeze has Moody’s awaiting first local default
SOUTH KOREA:
  • Won rises for a fourth day against the dollar after a report showed consumer confidence in June climbed to highest level in six years; KOSPI Index up 0.1%
  • USD/KRW drops 0.1% to 1,135.95 as pair consolidates above 100-DMA at 1,133.51
  • Fed Chair Yellen speaks Tuesday in London on global economic issues
  • “Won is long- biased today due to exporters’ selling dollars ahead of the quarter end,” says Seung Ji Jeon, currency analyst at Samsung Futures
    • “All eyes are on Yellen’s comments tonight and the wait- and-see mood is giving support to USD/KRW around the 100- DMA”
  • Despite rising approval ratings, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s fiscal stimulus package has so far gone nowhere in parliament, underscoring the challenges he faces in enacting his economic agenda without a majority
  • South Korea 10-year bond yield little changed at 2.12%
TAIWAN:
  • Taiwan dollar steady; TAIEX Index down 0.1%
  • UBS raises year-end Taiex forecast to 10,600 from 9,850
    • Strength in liquidity due to equity inflows from abroad and optimism for next iPhone means stock market may rise in short term, UBS analyst William Dong writes in note
THAILAND:
  • Baht is little changed after foreigners were net sellers of both bonds and equities in Thailand Monday
    • Global investors sold net 79m baht ($2.3m) of domestic notes, first net outflow since June 16, according to TBMA data; sold net $19.8m of local equities, taking net sales this month to $167.6m: exchange data
  • BOT will probably hold policy rate steady at 1.5% at its next meeting on July 5, Tim Leelahaphan, Thailand economist in Bangkok at Maybank Kim Eng Securities, wrote in Monday note
    • Negative real interest rates may force BOT to step up its stance by increasing the policy rate before year-end
  • BOT to sell 91- and 182-day bills Tuesday
  • Yield on 2.125% govt bond due December steady at 2.399%
PHILIPPINES:
  • Philippine peso drops 0.1% against the dollar as markets reopen after Monday’s holiday in many regional countries
  • USD/PHP at 50.255, trades in the 50.185 to 50.275 range vs 50.230 close on Friday; FX pair continues to consolidate under resistance at 50.415, March 6 high, which held last week
  • Overseas funds were net sellers of $7.5m in local equities on June 23
    • ATR Asset Management says Philippines has a “very good story” as benefits from President Duterte’s economic program are shaping up 
    • Duterte marks one year of stock turbulence: chart
  • Philippines reports budget deficit of 33.4b pesos ($665m) in May; revenue +14% y/y, spending +20% y/y, Treasury says in statement Monday
  • Lower inflation view of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas seem to suggest higher probability of no change in monetary policy this year, according to note from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
  • Treasury to auction 15b pesos of 20-year bonds Tuesday
RESEARCH:
  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management is taking a more conservative view on emerging-market currencies because momentum seems to be easing for global growth outlook, positions look stretched and commodity prices have weakened, according to June 23 report received Tuesday
Above are market moves and news from emerging Asian economies. For Australia, please see Inside Australia. For Japan, see Inside Japan. To contact the reporter on this story: Subhadip Sircar in Mumbai at ssircar3@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tan Hwee Ann at hatan@bloomberg.net Shikhar Balwani

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Dr Janet L Yellen (Federal Reserve System)
Edmund Goh (Aberdeen Asset Management PLC)
Freddy Wong (FMR LLC)
Ken Cheung (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Moon Jae-In (Republic of Korea)

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