HALISTER1: EU CREDIT OPEN: Risk On But ECB May Hold Key For Year-End Tone

EU CREDIT OPEN: Risk On But ECB May Hold Key For Year-End Tone

(Bloomberg) -- Risk on tone set to continue Wednesday in Europe as Asian credit markets sustained bullish momentum overnight, but activity may be hindered by the approaching ECB meeting, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.
  • Banks remain a key pressure point amid persistent uncertainty over Italian bank recapitalizations, EU Euribor rigging fines, Credit Suisse cost cutting
  • Credit market activity may be restrained before ECB meeting Thursday as market awaits QE update
    • An extension beyond March 2017 could provide near-term fillip for risk appetite; failure to extend would disappoint, may extinguish spread tightening potential into year-end
  • In primary, World Bank’s GBP tap is the only deal expected to price so far today
  • European IG credit pipeline here, leveraged finance pipeline here
  • Bloomberg Barclays Eur-Agg Corporate index closed Tuesday unchanged at 126bps; Bloomberg Barclays Eur HY index closed at 404bps (-10bps)
  • CDX IG closed Tuesday at 70.18 (-2.0bps); iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG is currently -3.5bps at 120.85 and iTraxx Australia quoted -3.7bps at 104.50
NEWS
  • Corporate News
  • Ahold to Start EU1b Share Buyback Program in 2017
  • VW’s Korea Unit Slapped With Record Fine for False Emission Ads
  • Ikea Full-Year Profit Rises 20% as Retailer Expands in China
  • Stagecoach 1H Rev. Rises, FY View Broadly Unchanged
  • Trafigura FY Profit Falls 12% Despite Record Oil Volumes
  • Steinhoff Sees Sales Momentum Continuing, Confident in Margins
  • Clas Ohlson 2Q Profit Slightly Below Ests.; Sales Match
  • Shell and Total Said to Sign Initial Oil Deals With Iran
  • Financial News
  • Credit Suisse Steps Up Cost Cuts as Revenue Eludes CEO Thiam; Targets 2018 Operating Cost Base Below CHF17b
  • Sberbank Nov. Profit 53.4b Rubles Under Russian Standards
  • Monte Paschi Retail Junior Debt Treatment Is Key, Goldman Says
  • UniCredit May Keep 10% in Pioneer If Amundi Offer Succeeds: Mf
  • Rating News
  • S&PGR Revises Incitec Pivot Otlk To Stable; ‘BBB’ Rtg Affrmd
  • Chesapeake Corp Family Rating Upgraded to Caa1 by Moody’s
  • China’s Corp Deleveraging Mixed Credit Implications: Moody’s
  • S&P Says Politics May Weigh on Poland’s Financial Stability: PAP
  • Other News
  • Green Delays Arcadia Results as Pressure Builds on Billionaire
  • Italy to Ask for EU15b ESM Loan for Paschi, Other Banks: Stampa
ANALYST VIEWS
  • We would look to buy cheap protection should Main and X-Over grind tighter in coming sessions and advance to levels in mid-to-high 60bps area for Main and close to 300bps for X- Over while we also keep our defensive stance centred on core CSPP names in cash: Commerzbank
  • “The corporate bond market is winding down; primary failing to proffer much by way of activity, secondary in the doldrums as turnover and liquidity drop precipitously. Protecting performance means ‘do nothing’ - or take some chips off the table - (but) reducing some risk unfortunately also means that spreads might edge wider": creditmarketdaily.com
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283