HALISTER1: EUR FRA/OIS and 5Y5Y 3s6s Basis to Widen: BofAML

EUR FRA/OIS and 5Y5Y 3s6s Basis to Widen: BofAML

(Bloomberg) -- TLTRO-2, corporate issuance and richness of bonds vs OIS should see renewed widening of EUR FRA/OIS and 5Y 3s6s basis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists Sphia Salim and Ruairi Hourihane write in a client note.
  • BofAML favors March 2017 FRA/OIS and 5Y5Y 3s6s basis widening
    • Enter March 2017 FRA/OIS widener at 6.25bps, targeting 10bps, with stop-loss at 4bps
  • Relationship between widening FRA/OIS and deterioration of bank credit-worthiness has broken down, with spread tightening since end of June, as dealers hedge flows
  • Euribor reform in June 2017 may also limit further tightening pressures
    • Buying of government bond futures vs OIS has been a key driver; hedging these flows has led to tightening FRA/OIS
  • Bond futures now look very rich again vs OIS, which could see reversal of tightening trend
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Ruairi Hourihane (Merrill Lynch International)
Sphia Salim (Bank of America Corp)

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