Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Panama revelations are likely to aggravate other underlying Euroskeptic trends in British public opinion, increasing the likelihood voters will elect to leave the EU at the June 23 vote, Eurasia analysts Mujtaba Rahman and Charles Lichfield write in client note.

• Momentum currently favors the “leave” campaign
• Voters’ risk aversion and economic uncertainty associated with leaving the EU still give the “remain” camp the edge, but this is becoming a closer call
  • Analysis of recent opinion polls shows government party backers are slowly leaning more toward leave; this will probably continue as they get ambiguous messages from the Conservative Party, which is itself split
• P.M. David Cameron will therefore need to mobilize Labor and Liberal Democrat voters to increase his chances of winning the referendum; his ability to do that will be hurt by the Panama revelations
• Turnout and undecided voters will be two key drivers of the outcome