Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Expectations for the ECB rate decision in September are easing even as political risks remain at the forefront of investors’ minds.

• MAIN RISK EVENTS:
• Central banks in focus, with ebbing bets for ECB easing this month as data suggests Brexit impact still limited
  • Difficult to imagine Draghi will miscommunicate to an extent that he spurs significant re-pricing in markets; he may signal could be delivered in October or December, which would be only moderately disappointing, JPMorgan strategist Gianluca Salford says
• Attention also on BOJ after its last meeting fell short of expectations but market talk of helicopter money persists, while Fed watchers still split on possibility of a rate rise as soon as next month
• U.K. parliament returns and focus will be on next steps, timing for triggering Article 50 to begin Brexit talks and the government’s fiscal plans
• Italian and Spanish politics back on investors’ radar, while German regional elections will be parsed for signs of Merkel’s performance in next year’s vote
• With oil holding just below $50, meeting between OPEC and other oil producers is also a key event next month

AUGUST

• 30: BOE buys bonds with 15Y+ maturity (see prior result)
• 30: German CPI
• 31: Spain’s acting PM faces confidence vote
• 31: U.K. PM May, cabinet to meet at Chequers to discuss Brexit

SEPTEMBER

• 1: U.S., Japan introduce new collateral rules on swaps market
• 2: Spain’s acting PM may face second confidence vote
• 2: U.S. non-farm payrolls
• 2: Fitch may review Greece, Finland ratings
• 4/5: G-20 summit in Hangzhou, China
• 4: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania regional elections
• 5: U.K. parliament reconvenes
• 5: U.K. August services, composite PMI
• 6: BOE buys bonds with 15Y+ maturity
• 8: ECB rate decision; JPM sees little to spur new measures
• 9: DBRS may review Finland’s rating
• 9: Eurogroup meets in Bratislava
• 13: BOE buys bonds with 15Y+ maturity
• 13: U.K. August CPI
• 14: U.K. August claimant count; July average weekly earnings
• 15: BOE rate decision
• 16: First EU summit without U.K. takes place in Bratislava
• 16: S&P Global Ratings may review Portugal’s rating; DBRS may review Italy; S&P may review Finland
• 18: Berlin regional elections
• 19: BOE term funding scheme drawdown period begins
• 20: BOE buys bonds with 15Y+ maturity
• 21: U.K. August Public Sector Net Borrowing
• 21: BOJ rate decision, Governor press conference
• 21: Fed rate decision; some analysts say likelihood of a Sept. rate hike has risen
• 22: TLTRO II take-up
• 25: Election in Spain’s Basque country
• 25-28: U.K. Opposition Labour Party conference in Liverpool
• 26: Tentative date for the first U.S. presidential debate; Trump says he’s not happy the debates compete with NFL games
• 26/28: OPEC, other oil producers meet
• 28: Catalonia confidence vote after region approves secession
• 29: German September CPI
• 30: S&P may review Spain’s rating

OCTOBER

• Italian referendum on constitutional reform may take place this month or in November; Barclays analysts say Italy faces risk of political upheaval without reform
• Deadline to form a govt in Spain is end-Oct; no agreement would mean a third general election
• Second progress review of Greece reforms expected to begin
• 1: Michel Barnier starts role as EU’s chief Brexit negotiator
• 2: Hungary referendum on whether the EU should be able to order the country to accept the settlement of migrants
• 2: Austria presidential election re-run
• 2-5: U.K. ruling Conservative Party conference in Birmingham; may discuss Brexit, fiscal stimulus
• 5: U.K. September services, composite PMI
• 6: ECB policy meeting account
• 9: Possible date of second U.S. presidential debate
• 14: SEC’s money market reforms take effect
• 15: Hearing begins for lawsuit on seeking to force U.K. PM to consult parliament before initiating Brexit
• 15: Deadline for Spain, Portugal to take action on budget deficits
• 19: U.K. Sept. claimant count; August average weekly earnings
• 20: ECB rate decision
• 21: U.K. September Public Sector Net Borrowing
• 21: Fitch may review Italy’s rating; S&P may review France’s; DBRS may review Portugal
• 27: U.K. advanced 3Q GDP
• 28: German October CPI
• 28: S&P may review U.K. credit rating; the ratings company downgraded U.K. to AA vs AAA with a negative outlook in June

NOVEMBER

• U.K. Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, expected to include some fiscal measures to counteract the risk of recession, may take place this month or in December
• 3: U.K. Oct. services, composite PMI
• 3: BOE rate decision, minutes, Inflation Report
• 3: ECB publishes economic bulletin
• 11: S&P may review Italy’s rating
• 15: U.K. Oct CPI
• 16: U.K. Oct claimant count; Sept average weekly earnings
• 23: Euro-area preliminary Nov. services, composite PMI
• 27: Italy may hold referendum on constitutional change
• 29: German Nov CPI