HALISTER1: EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: ECB QE Details, Greece Review, OPEC

EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: ECB QE Details, Greece Review, OPEC

(Bloomberg) -- Further details on the ECB’s corporate bond-buying plans are keenly awaited as analysts weigh how much further spreads can tighten.
  • Greece remains in focus as the first bailout review resumes and the IMF said again it will only lend to Greece if there’s some debt forgiveness
  • MAIN RISKS:
  • ECB plans to buy IG non-financial corporate bonds but hasn’t yet provided many details; further information will help determine the size of the pool of eligible assets, analysts say
  • Discussions between Greece and her creditors resume on April 2; conclusion is a pre-condition for debt-relief talks, Citigroup analysts say
  • How Europe responds to the attacks in Brussels and the success of the deal between Turkey and Greece to stem the flow of refugees may affect everything from support for Merkel’s coalition govt to the U.K. vote on EU membership
    • Berenberg’s Holger Schmieding says politics is more important than economics in 2016, even more so after the Belgium bombings
  • Negotiations to form a govt continue in Ireland and Spain, while DBRS’s decision on Portugal’s rating will determine whether its bonds remain eligible for QE
  • This month’s meeting of oil producing nations in Doha also eyed for any signal on oil’s future direction
MARCH
  • 31: U.K. Final 4Q GDP reading
APRIL
  • On past form, ECB could deliver more details on corporate bond buying program this month, HSBC says
  • Novo Banco CDS succession-event vote deadline is this month
  • 1: Introduction of the Living Wage in the U.K.; may support wage and price growth, CEBR says
  • 1: Fitch may review Germany’s rating; S&P may review Spain
  • 2: Mission chiefs due to return to Greece
  • 5: U.K. March services, composite PMI
  • 6: Earliest Irish parliament can vote on a new prime minister
  • 7: ECB accounts
  • 12: U.K. March CPI
  • 14: BOE rate decision
  • 14: Deadline to designate official U.K. “leave” and “remain” campaigns; referendum campaign starts following day
  • 17: OPEC meeting with major oil producers
  • 20: U.K. March claimant count; Feb average weekly earnings
  • 21: ECB rate decision
  • 21: Riksbank rate decision
  • 22: Eurogroup: Greece first review may be discussed
  • 22: Eurozone preliminary April services, composite PMI
  • 22: Fitch may review Italy rating, Cyprus; S&P may review France
  • 27: Fed rate decision
  • 27: U.K. preliminary 1Q GDP
  • 28: German April CPI
  • 29: S&P may review U.K. rating
    • DBRS is scheduled to report on Portugal’s rating; any downgrade would make PGBs ineligible for ECB QE
  • MAY:
  • Greece debt relief deal may be agreed in May, Eurasia says
  • 3: Spain’s parliament will be dissolved if no govt has been formed
  • 5: U.K. April services, composite PMI
  • 6: Moody’s may review Portugal rating
  • 12: BOE rate decision; quarterly Inflation Report
  • 13: S&P may review Italy’s rating, Moody’s may review Ireland
  • 18: U.K. April claimant count; March average weekly earnings
  • 18: Fed releases minutes of April 26/27 meeting
  • 19: ECB accounts
  • 20: Moody’s may review France’s rating
  • 24: EU May prelim. services, composite PMI
  • 30: German May CPI
  • 27: Moody’s may review U.K.’s credit rating
  • JUNE:
  • Spain may hold new elections this month if no coalition formed, Rajoy says
  • Dijsselbloem says seeking roadmap on deposit insurance and risk-reduction efforts by this month
  • Last month Italy could hold municipal elections
  • 2: ECB rate decision
  • 3: U.K. May services, composite PMI
  • 3: Moody’s may review Finland’s rating; S&P may review Ireland
  • 10: Moody’s may review Italy’s rating, Fitch may review U.K., France
  • 15: U.K. May claimant count; April average weekly earnings
  • Fed rate decision
  • 16: BOE rate decision, minutes
  • 17: Moody’s may review Spain’s rating
  • 23: EC preliminary June services, composite PMI
  • 23: U.K. votes on EU membership
  • 23: TLTRO 8 allotment
  • 23: Brussels summit originally scheduled to start today may be pushed back
  • 29: German June CPI
  • 30: ECB accounts
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)
1004Z GA (Hellenic Republic)

People
Holger Schmieding (Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co KG)

To de-activate this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283