HALISTER1: EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: Headline Risks Climb on Policy, Politics

EUROPE RISK TIMELINE: Headline Risks Climb on Policy, Politics

(Bloomberg) -- Politics and central bank decisions wrestle for a place in the spotlight in a potentially volatile month.
  • The U.K. is to vote on EU membership while Spain heads for national polls and Italy local elections are due; Fed and BOJ meetings will also be keenly watched; the BOE though has entered a period of purdah so may offer less excitement, for now
  • MAIN RISK EVENTS:
  • While U.K. assets had been pricing out risk premiums ahead of the Brexit referendum, opinion polls, news flow on the migrant crisis and tensions in the ruling Conservative party may weigh on GBP assets in the run up to the vote, analysts say
  • Take up at the first TLTRO-II operation and the start of ECB CSPP are also key events in June; BofAML says the corporate bond program may begin on June 6
  • With Fed policy makers saying a June rate rise can’t be ruled out, the mid-June meeting will be in focus; BOJ officials are widely expected to ease more amid JPY strength, although Fed’s tone could be a blessing in disguise
  • Fresh elections in Spain may garner more attention than they have to date as next year’s budget hasn’t been agreed yet, MS says
  • The OPEC meeting will be eyed as investors weigh the outlook for inflation after oil made longest run of monthly gains in 5 years
  • JUNE:
  • 2: ECB rate decision; preview here
  • 2: OPEC meeting
  • 3: U.K. May services, composite PMI
  • 3: Moody’s may review Finland’s rating; S&P may review Ireland
  • 5: Italy holds municipal elections; if the opposition 5SM party, led by Beppe Grillo, wins in Rome, the likelihood the govt will stay in office until 2018 increases significantly, Barclays says
  • 10: Moody’s may review Italy’s rating, Fitch may review U.K., France
  • 14: U.K. May CPI
  • 15: U.K. May claimant count; April average weekly earnings
    • Reflects new Living Wage; ~40% of wage deals take place
  • 15: Fed rate decision; will watch U.K. polls closely: Kaplan
  • 16: BOE rate decision, minutes
  • 16: Eurogroup
    • Dijsselbloem said seeking roadmap on deposit insurance and risk-reduction efforts by June
  • 16: BOJ meeting
  • 17: Moody’s may review Spain’s rating
  • 19: If needed, second round of Italian municipal elections take place
  • 21: Germany’s Constitutional court to release ruling on ECB’s OMT program at 10 a.m.
  • 21: BBC hosts TV debate on referendum; C. Suisse says may be key market event, citing events before the Scottish referendum in 2014
  • 23: EC preliminary June services, composite PMI
  • 23: U.K. votes on EU membership; David Cameron’s survival as PM may depend on the margin of the result, in the event of a vote to stay
  • 23: ECB TLTRO-8 allotment
  • 23: Brussels summit originally scheduled to start but may be pushed back
  • 24: Moody’s may review Greece’s rating
  • 26: Spain holds fresh elections
  • 29: German June CPI
  • 30: ECB account
JULY
  • EU will decide on Spain, Portugal deficit procedure in early July, Economic and Monetary Commissioner Moscovici told reporters
  • 5: U.K. June services, composite PMI
  • 6: Fed releases June minutes
  • 13: Greece must repay EU446m in IMF loans
  • 14: BOE rate decision, minutes
  • 15: Fitch may review Ireland’s rating
  • 19: U.K. June CPI
  • 20: Greece must repay ~EU2.3b in principal on bonds held by the ECB
  • 20: U.K. June claimant count; May average weekly earnings
  • 21: ECB rate decision
  • 22: S&P may review Greece’s rating
  • 22: EC preliminary July services, composite PMI
  • 27: U.K. 2Q GDP
  • 27: Fed rate meeting; 53% probability of 25bps rate increase, WIRP shows
  • 28: German July CPI
  • 29: Fitch may review Spain’s rating
AUGUST
  • 01: Greece must repay ~EU80m in IMF loans
  • 03: U.K. June services, composite PMI
  • 04: BOE rate decision, minutes
  • 16: U.K. July CPI
  • 17: U.K. July claimant count; June average weekly earnings
  • 17: Fed releases July minutes
  • 18: ECB accounts
  • 19: Fitch may review Portugal’s rating
  • 24: EC preliminary August services, composite PMI
  • 29: Fitch may review Spain’s rating
  • 30: German August CPI
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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