Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Political risks are at the forefront of investors’ minds as Europe edges closer to crunch time for Spain’s political parties, Italy’s referendum and Brexit and with the U.S. presidential election less than six weeks away.

• MAIN RISK EVENTS:
• Any flare-up in the travails of German banks eyed as markets weigh if this could affect Merkel’s decision to stand for re-election
• The prospect of a hard Brexit seems to be solidifying
• Attention also turns to the U.S. as the presidential election could spur a shift toward fiscal easing and/or more protectionism
• DBRS is due to review Portugal’s rating; a downgrade could freeze the country out of the ECB’s QE program
  • PGBs may be set for a rebound as Portugal’s fiscal situation remains under control, JPM analysts including Gianluca Salford say
  • Meanwhile, UBS says PGBs have substantial room to sell off were Portugal to lose market access, or in a situation of generalized risk aversion
• Italian and Spanish politics are back in focus; talks about Greece’s progress with its reform agenda continue
• Central banks across the region have signaled they’re in wait-and-see mode for now
• With CPI widely expected to rebound, question marks remain over whether OPEC will succeed in holding up oil prices

OCTOBER

• Deadline to form a govt in Spain is end-October; no agreement would mean a third general election
• Second progress review of Greece reforms expected
• 1: Michel Barnier starts role as EU’s chief Brexit negotiator
• 2: Hungary referendum on whether the EU should be able to order the country to accept the settlement of migrants
• 2: Austria presidential election re-run
• 2-5: U.K. ruling Conservative Party conference in Birmingham; may discuss Brexit, fiscal stimulus
• 5: U.K. September services, composite PMI
• 6: ECB policy meeting account
• 7: DBRS may review Spain’s rating
• 9: Second U.S. presidential debate; poll after first debate
• 10: Eurogroup; decision on Greek bailout tranche expected
• 11: ECOFIN meeting
• 14: SEC’s money market reforms take effect
• 15: Hearing begins for lawsuit on seeking to force U.K. PM to consult parliament before initiating Brexit
• 15: Deadline for Spain, Portugal to take action on budget deficits
• 19: U.K. Sept. claimant count; August average weekly earnings
• 19: Third US presidential election debate
• 20: ECB rate decision
• 20/21: EU summit; migration, trade issues, Russia on the agenda
• 21: U.K. September Public Sector Net Borrowing
• 21: Fitch may review Italy’s rating; S&P may review France’s; DBRS may review Portugal
• 23: Mooted date for PSOE primaries; if Sanchez loses vote, will likely lead to the formation of a PP-led govt in Spain: Barclays
• 27: U.K. advanced 3Q GDP
• 28: German October CPI
• 28: S&P may review U.K. credit rating; the ratings company downgraded U.K. to AA vs AAA with a negative outlook in June

NOVEMBER

• DBRS expects to review Italy in coming months, according to September statement; a “yes” vote in referendum would be good news
• 3: U.K. Oct. services, composite PMI
• 3: BOE rate decision, minutes, Inflation Report; MPC says more easing is possible this year
• 3: ECB publishes economic bulletin
• 8: U.S. presidential election
• 11: S&P may review Italy’s rating
• 15: U.K. Oct CPI
• 16: U.K. Oct claimant count; Sept average weekly earnings
• 20: French presidential candidate right and center primaries; Juppe leading Sarkozy in the polls
• 23: U.K. Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, expected to include some fiscal measures to counteract the risk of recession
• 23: Euro-area preliminary Nov. services, composite PMIs
• 27: Italy may hold referendum on constitutional change
• 27: Second round of French right and center primaries
• 29: German Nov. CPI

DECEMBER

• French president Hollande says he will say whether he’ll run for president this month
• Second Greek review may be completed by year end
• 4: Italian referendum; bonds, stocks and euro may see losses on a “no” vote, analysts say
• 5: U.K. Nov. services, composite PMI
• 5: Euro-area final Nov. services, composite PMI
• 5 to 7: Germany’s CDU party holds national convention; Merkel may announce whether she intends to stand again next year
• 9: Fitch may review U.K., France, EFSF, ESM ratings
• 13: U.K. Nov. CPI
• 14: Fed rate decision; Fed signaled may lift rates this month at its September meeting
• 15: BOE rate decision
• 15: TLTRO II take-up; banks took EU45b in September
• 15: Provisional deadline for French left-wing presidential candidate applications