HALISTER1: Exotix Cuts Recommendation on Angolan 2025 Bond to Hold vs Buy

Exotix Cuts Recommendation on Angolan 2025 Bond to Hold vs Buy

(Bloomberg) -- “We’d prefer to have more clarity and information on the overall debt position before being comfortable recommending the bonds again,” Exotix Global Head of Research Stuart Culverhouse says in report.
  • July 11 statement from Angolan govt should go some way to reassuring bond holders after recent negative news
  • Finance Ministry has tried to explain decision to call off IMF program talks, reassure investors
  • Angola points to rising oil prices, govt has been able to borrow elsewhere
  • Angola reports strong liquidity cushion, significant new external financing, pursuit of structural reforms
  • “It doesn’t sound to us like a govt that is about to default”
  • However, there is growing concern about govt borrowing spree
  • “We have concerns about the level of debt, the debt burden, terms of new debt and debt service profile”
  • Foreign debt burden could have risen to 58% of GDP
  • “We think investors will share these concerns over the lack of transparency about its debt position and debt metrics, particularly in light of events in Mozambique”
  • NOTE: Yield on Angolan Eurobond due Nov. 2025 -10bps to 10.05% as of 12:59pm in capital, Luanda
  • NOTE: Angola’s Inflation Rate Climbs to Highest Since at Least 2011 Link
  • NOTE: Angola Forecasts 2016 Budget Deficit at 6% vs 5.5% Earlier Link
  • NOTE: Angolan Bonds Plunge as President Warns of Debt- Payment Struggle Link
  • NOTE: Mozambique Yields at Record as IMF Warns of Debt Distress Link
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
32272Z AX (Republic of Angola)

People
Stuart Culverhouse (Exotix Ltd)

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