HALISTER1: Fade Recent Bund 10s30s Steepening as Long-End Supply Falls: SG

Fade Recent Bund 10s30s Steepening as Long-End Supply Falls: SG

(Bloomberg) -- Expect bull-flattening to resume in the medium term, helped by favourable supply-demand dynamics and the prospect of further Bund rally, Societe Generale strategist Jamal Meliani writes in client note.
  • Sell 100 Bund futures vs buying 48 BUXL futures
    • Suggest implementing flattener in the futures space with the underlying Bund/Buxl CTD yield spread being 99% correlated to 10s30s Bund spread over the past three months
  • Risks: Sharp recovery in inflation expectations along with less dovish ECB leading to a sell-off in core yields and a bear steepening at the long end of the Bund curve
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Jamal Meliani (Societe Generale SA)

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