HALISTER1: Fed Hike Still Possible in Dec., Seen as 50-50 Shot: Renaissance

Fed Hike Still Possible in Dec., Seen as 50-50 Shot: Renaissance

(Bloomberg) -- FOMC’s Dec. 13-14 mtg “looks like the earliest viable point for the next rate hike and even then, we see the prospect of a hike as a 50-50 proposition,” Renaissance Macro Research economist Neil Dutta writes in note.
  • Renaissance expects 2 more increases in 2017, 3-4 in 2018
    • Relative to FOMC, “we are somewhat more dovish now, but somewhat more hawkish later”
  • For Fed to hike in Dec., employment growth must rebound, tracking estimates of GDP should remain above 2%, financial conditions should be stable
  • Further USD appreciation is possible given relative health of U.S. economy and vulnerable global economy, may cause headaches across emerging mkts
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Neil Dutta (Renaissance MacRo Research LLC)

Topics
BGOV Finance

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