HALISTER1: Fed July Taper News Would Likely Flatten Curve: Credit Agricole

Fed July Taper News Would Likely Flatten Curve: Credit Agricole

(Bloomberg) -- An announcement this week on the timing of a Fed balance-sheet taper would likely cause the curve to “flatten out to the 5Y sector” because the surprise “would be negative for risk assets,” Credit Agricole strategist Alex Li writes in July 24 note.
  • Surprise would be an early or “hawkish” normalization, and negative for “equities, TIPS breakevens and spread products” because of potentially higher short-term rates
    • Credit Agricole expects Fed’s balance-sheet taper announcement in September, and officials to “telegraph” the timing of the taper announcement this week
  • If additional borrowing is initially funded by higher issuance in bills and short-dated notes, “yield curve is likely to flatten, all else equal”
  • Treasury should increase issuance across curve over long term “so that no one particular sector is materially affected by higher issuance as a result of the taper”
To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Windemuth in New York at awindemuth1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Alex Li (Credit Agricole SA)

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