HALISTER1: Fed Statement to Keep Prospect Open for a June Hike: CapEcon

Fed Statement to Keep Prospect Open for a June Hike: CapEcon

(Bloomberg) -- Fed is almost certain to leave rates unchanged at May 2-3 meeting, move ahead with another hike in June, assuming employment growth rebounds, Capital Economics economist Michael Pearce wrote in note Wednesday.
  • Statement is unlikely to signal any major changes to policy, yet may acknowledge softer tone in business surveys
    • Surprise drop in core inflation for March may give policy makers “pause for thought”
  • Balance sheet will be another “live issue” at meeting
    • Doesn’t appear to be consensus on how large Fed’s portfolio should be long term; good chance Fed will want significantly larger balance sheet than in past
    • Wouldn’t be surprised to see some discussion of issue in minutes of May meeting

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Michael Pearce (Capital Economics Ltd)

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