HALISTER1: Fed to Hike Once in 2016, Consensus Is Too Low: Renaissance

Fed to Hike Once in 2016, Consensus Is Too Low: Renaissance

(Bloomberg) -- “Though the market has moved further away from a rate hike in 2016, our confidence in one has gone up in the last week,” Renaissance Macro Research economist Neil Dutta writes in note.
  • Inventory rebuilding should support 2H growth; output gap “looks closed,” which would lead to increasing pressure on core inflation; USD appears to have stabilized, policy divergence looks priced into USD
  • Global growth could be expanding above trend; downside risks appear to be easing
  • Flat forward curve looks “a little too flat”
    • “Consensus may be underestimating the risk of an upside surprise to growth”
    • Renaissance expects Fed to hike in Dec.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Neil Dutta (Renaissance MacRo Research LLC)

Topics
BGOV Finance

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