HALISTER1: Fed’s April Minutes Reflect More Division Than Suggested: BofAML

Fed’s April Minutes Reflect More Division Than Suggested: BofAML

(Bloomberg) -- FOMC appears divided on number of issues, which “undermines the idea that there is a strong unified front toward a June hike,” BofAML’s Michael Hanson wrote in note Thur.
  • “There is a lot less agreement in the details of the minutes than the headlines or a count of the number of speakers who said June is ‘live’ would indicate”
    • Several saw risks as nearly balanced, while many others continued to see downside risks; many thought growth would improve, some saw risk of persistent downturn
  • Divisions are “somewhat more marked” when comparing FOMC members, or voters, with all participants
    • Language was more “cautious” among voters, who agreed to leave policy options open
  • Minutes historically tend to sound more hawkish because they “give voice” to those outside FOMC’s consensus
    • “In the end, the voters are who matter”
  • NOTE: FOMC voters include Janet Yellen, William Dudley, Lael Brainard, Stanley Fischer, Jerome Powell, Daniel Tarullo, and 4 regional Fed presidents with 2016 voting rights: James Bullard, Esther George, Loretta Mester, Eric Rosengren
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Daniel Tarullo (Federal Reserve System)
Esther George (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City/MO)
Janet Yellen (Federal Reserve System)
Michael Hanson (Bank of America Corp)
William Dudley (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

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