HALISTER1: Fed’s Roll-Off to Boost Sub-5Y UST Supply, Flattening 5s30s: TD

Fed’s Roll-Off to Boost Sub-5Y UST Supply, Flattening 5s30s: TD

(Bloomberg) -- The Treasury should increase the supply of sub-5Y USTs to minimize funding costs of the Fed’s portfolio run-off, flattening the 5s30s curve, as yields in the sector rise, TD strategists led by Priya Misra write in note.
  • Supply pressure could “steepen the 2s5s curve but flatten the 5s30s curve” as Treasury finances $175b of Fed’s portfolio run- off
    • “We continue to hold on to our 5s30s flatteners”
  • Additional Treasury supply to “cheapen” USTs vs OIS and “put tightening pressure on swap spreads”; front-end supply would lead GC and front-end USTs to “underperform” vs OIS and Libor
  • TD doesn’t see any change in issuance sizes this quarter 
    • August quarterly refunding announcement could include $24b in 3s, $23b in 10s, $15b in 30s; discussion “will effectively set the stage for supply increases starting at the November refunding”
To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Windemuth in New York at awindemuth1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Vivien Lou Chen

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Priya Misra (TD Securities USA LLC)

To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here

UUID: 7947283