HALISTER1: First Exports Growth in 2-Years May Cap Rupiah Gains: Analysis

First Exports Growth in 2-Years May Cap Rupiah Gains: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- USD/IDR may fail to breach 50-DMA if Indonesia’s exports match economists’ forecast in September, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.
  • Exports probably rose 0.5% y/y, median est. in Bloomberg survey shows, which would be the first expansion since Sept. 2014; ests. range from -5.42% to +4.90%; data due Oct. 17
    • Data may also show that imports rose 5.10% y/y, which would also be first increase since Sept. 2014, and the trade surplus widened to $546m from $294m, survey shows
  • An as-expected outcome could see FX pair retest this month’s low of 12,955, struck on Oct. 10, in near term
  • USD/IDR down 0.2% at 13,058 today; 50-DMA is at 13,114
    • Williams %R may be peaking in overbought territory; now at -14
  • NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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