HALISTER1: FOMC to Stand Pat in July, Sept.; 50% Odds of Dec.: Renaissance

FOMC to Stand Pat in July, Sept.; 50% Odds of Dec.: Renaissance

(Bloomberg) -- Fed might hike in Dec. if labor mkt recovers over summer, tracking estimates of GDP remain ~2% and financial conditions ease, Renaissance Macro Research economist Neil Dutta writes in note.
  • About even odds of a Dec. hike
  • Brexit will impact U.S. economy across “multiple dimensions,” though not expecting recession
  • U.S. GDP will take hit of anywhere from 0.2-0.6ppts over next yr, with impact on trade, USD and confidence; growth could slow to 1.5%
    • Much depends on how long shock to financial mkts persists
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Neil Dutta (Renaissance MacRo Research LLC)

Topics
BGOV Finance

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