Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Citigroup reduces the likelihood Clinton will win the November presidential vote to 60% from 65%, with a 40% probability of a Trump win, analysts led by Tina Fordham write in client note.

• While markets are partially pricing the possibility of a Trump victory, as can be seen in sharp rally in USD/MXN, if the probability increases recent market moves may be exaggerated
  • If the market were to price an 85% likelihood of a Trump win, dollar would strengthen especially vs EM FX; 10Y and 30Y UST yields would rise and curves would steepen by as much as 30bps; global stocks would weaken with S&P falling ~3% and EM equities down around 9%; U.S. credit spreads would widen, gold would rise
• NOTE: Risk assets may weaken and rates may find support if Trump were to move significantly ahead in the polls, Aberdeen said last week