HALISTER1: Full-Scale BOJ Easing, Delay in Sales Tax Seen by Morgan Stanley

Full-Scale BOJ Easing, Delay in Sales Tax Seen by Morgan Stanley

(Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley expects “full-scale 3-dimensional easing” of quantity, quality and interest rates, according to April 25 note.
  • Cites following factors: BOJ has lowered its assessment of economy; yen has strengthened; earthquakes have damaged Kumamoto; price expectations have worsened; spring wage negotiations have amplified downside risk to prices
  • New BOJ policy will probably expand monetary-base target to 90t-100t yen from 80t yen; boost purchases of ETFs, JGBs, and J-REITs; and start buying municipal bonds and perhaps corporate debt
  • A rate cut is also likely, from -0.1% by at least 10 bps and perhaps 20 bps
  • Also expects a postponement of scheduled sales-tax hike
  • Says if BOJ meets MS’s expectations, Japan’s 20-yr govt bonds likely to outperform in a rally
  • Sees “tactical risks” for higher USD/JPY but recommends selling into this strength post-BOJ; says yen is the most fundamentally undervalued among G-10 currencies
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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