HALISTER1: GBP Forward Swaps Fade Richness vs EUR Peers After U.K. PMI

GBP Forward Swaps Fade Richness vs EUR Peers After U.K. PMI

(Bloomberg) -- GBP swap forwards fade richness versus EUR equivalents following stronger than expected Aug. manufacturing PMI.
  • GBP 5y5y forward swap rate vs EUR spread at 26bp vs Aug. 29 low of ~13bp, narrowest level since Nov. 2012
  • See 1-year regression analysis here; R^2 at 0.65, y=0.289x+0.115, showing the RV dislocation highlighted on Aug. 30 here
  • GBP OIS forwards currently price 39% probability of a 15bp BOE rate cut to 0.10% by Dec. vs 52% yday, assuming 4.8bps Sonia-base rate corridor
  • NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
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