HALISTER1: German 10Y Yield Facing 2015 Deja-Vu Moment as Same Hurdle Caps

German 10Y Yield Facing 2015 Deja-Vu Moment as Same Hurdle Caps

(Bloomberg) -- Mean-reversion risks intensify in German 10y yields as top of ichimoku cloud curtails the surge for second week (this week at 41bps), in a development similar to last December when cloud top was rejected in every single weekly test, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.
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  • This time round, yield also facing resistance from 42-43bps, the late October break-down point and 50% retracement of 2015-2016 rally in Bunds; 9-week RSI at ~70 (just like last Dec.)
  • Setbacks may find support from 21-ExpMA and 50% retracement of latest selloff at 15bps-13bps
  • A weekly close above 43bps this week (or ideally this month) would be a significant bearish development for Bunds and opens up 58bps (61.8% Fibonacci) and then 74bps level seen last December
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  • NOTE: Sejul Gokal is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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