HALISTER1: Gilts Close Gap vs BTPs, SPGBs as Brexit Premium Trimmed: Charts

Gilts Close Gap vs BTPs, SPGBs as Brexit Premium Trimmed: Charts

(Bloomberg) -- Regression analysis shows beta coefficient of U.K. 10Y yields vs Italy, Spain increased this year, with the spreads recently narrowing from last week’s multi-month highs as Brexit polls swing in favor of “remain”; see chart here.
  • U.K. 10Y yields have declined this quarter amid continued uncertainty over Brexit vote while similar-maturity Italy and Spain yields have increased
  • Spread on 10Y BTPs over gilts is now 19bp, compared with -19bp on April 1
  • The periphery-EGB beta to gilts has been increasing this year; see regression analysis here
    • R^2 = 0.58, y = -67.28x + 221.68 this year
  • NOTE: Tanvir Sandhu is an interest-rate and derivatives strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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