Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Valuations at the long end of Ukraine’s bond curve are attractive and supported by technical market dynamics, but uncertainty surrounding reforms, the political calendar and the economic outlook will ultimately limit upside, analyst Andrew Matheny writes in emailed note late Tuesday.

• About $4.5b-$5b in 2019 debt maturities are "manageable," supporting front end of bond curve and prompting further steepening
• Says Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance has been "impressive, in particular relative to past IMF program performance"
  • Progress on institutional and anti-corruption reforms outside the realm of macroeconomics has remained disappointing, leaving Ukraine with positive short-term cyclical dynamics but still-uncertain longer-term economic, fiscal and political prospects
• Private capital inflows to continue and Ukraine to likely tap international debt markets near-term, supporting rise in foreign reserves to estimated $20b in 2017 and $23b in 2018 from $17.8b in July, and maintaining appreciation pressure on hryvnia
  • Keeps 12-month USD/UAH forecast at 24.75
• NOTE: Ukraine Is Said to Plan First Dollar Bond Sale Since 2013: FT
• NOTE: Black Ops, Fake News and a Real Punch Muddle Ukraine Graft Fight

To contact the reporter on this story: Marton Eder in Budapest at meder4@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ven Ram at vram1@bloomberg.net Alex Nicholson