HALISTER1: Goldman Updates Fed Balance Sheet Projection to $3t in 2021

Goldman Updates Fed Balance Sheet Projection to $3t in 2021

(Bloomberg) -- The Fed balance sheet is likely to shrink to about 13.4% of GDP (an amount equal to $2.6t currently and forecast to reach $3t in 2021), lifting UST 10Y yield by ~20bp this year, 15bp next year and 10bp per year from 2019-2021, Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven says in July 24 note.
  • Wednesday’s FOMC statement is likely “to hint at an announcement of balance sheet normalization in September,” which should begin in October
  • MBS assets on balance sheet should shrink to $1.1t by November 2021, however Fed may eventually opt to sell, depending on what future Fed leadership is disposed to do
To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Windemuth in New York at awindemuth1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Elizabeth Stanton

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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Daan Struyven (Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The)

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