HALISTER1: Increase in Rate Hike Odds a ‘Huge Move in Fed World’: Ambrosino

Increase in Rate Hike Odds a ‘Huge Move in Fed World’: Ambrosino

(Bloomberg) -- Thursday’s rise in Fed rate increase odds represents a “huge move” and “one that we haven’t seen since just ahead of the March FOMC rate hike,” Todd Colvin, senior VP at Ambrosino Brothers, says in a note. 
  • Odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end rose as a high as 46%, based on January 2018 fed fund futures; market was pricing roughly 22% chance of a hike by year-end on Sept. 8
  • In late-February, fed hike odds were sub-25% for a March increase “and in just a few days shifted to over 80% odds”
  • “We’re not there yet, but this looks eerily similar (and not for a rate hike next week, but year-end). Next week is all about the balance sheet” 
  • Click here to see a chart of Fed rate hike odds
To contact the reporter on this story: Alexandra Harris in New York at aharris48@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net Greg Chang

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Todd Colvin (Ambrosino Brothers)

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