Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/IDR 1-mo NDFs may breach 50-DMA resistance even if Indonesia’s March trade data matches expectations as the data may highlight ongoing weakness in global trade, spurring risk-off sentiment, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• Indonesian March trade data due tomorrow
  • Trade balance is expected to fall to $465m from $1.1b in Feb. as exports are forecast at -14.32% y/y vs -7.18% y/y in Feb.; imports estimated at -12.02% y/y vs -11.71% in Feb.
• Ongoing weakness in global trade can further be illustrated by Singapore’s MAS surprise decision today to ease its monetary policy to help support its trade sensitive economy
• Breach and close above 50-DMA may see IDR NDFs test resistance at 13,507, March 29 high, in short-term
• Slow stochastics bullish with %D reading of 34 and rising
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.