HALISTER1: Indonesian Bonds Rally Ahead of BI’s New Framework: BofAML

Indonesian Bonds Rally Ahead of BI’s New Framework: BofAML

(Bloomberg) -- Based on examples of other monetary policy frameworks, it is likely that the lending and deposit facilities are kept at 7-day repo +/- x bps spread, where x is decided by Bank Indonesia, analysts at BofAML write in note Wednesday.
  • NOTE: BI said to adopt reverse repo as benchmark rate
  • Three main developments to watch out for:
    • If the lending rate does come off substantially, this would be bullish for bonds
    • If the lending facility rate in the new framework does come off, it could put more pressure on local banks to ease rates
    • If overnight interbank market does jump from current levels of 4.8%/4.9% to 7-day repo levels of 5.5%, cost of funds for smaller banks, who are short of funds, will increase
    • To ensure that monetary policy transmission is better in the new framework, it is essential the overnight rate does not deviate too much from the 7-day repo rate
  • 10-year govt bond yields down 4 bps to 7.456%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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