Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Most Asian currencies trade within 0.1% of yesterday’s close as dollar index rises for fifth day on a gradual revival of Fed rate-hike expectations.

• Aussie, however, drops more than 0.2%; NAB changes RBA forecasts, now sees 2 rate cuts in 2017
• China July CPI matches ests.; +1.8% y/y, lowest since Jan.; yuan edges lower
• India central bank rate decision due 11am Mumbai time; Rajan’s last policy review, likely to hold rates; preview here
• Asian FX is mixed on day-to-day basis due to summer holidays, lack of fresh incentives and significant events, Mizuho Bank EM trader Masakatsu Fukaya says
  • Inflows likely to continue to EM markets as many developed nations ease monetary policy while U.S. takes slow approach to rate hikes
• Market pricing 47.4% chance of Fed hike in Dec.
• Goldman Sachs says buy dollar on Fed; Morgan Stanley says not so fast
• China inflation to pick up later in yr as flood impacts prices: BNP; PPI may finally turn positive in Nov.-Dec.
  • July PPI -1.7% y/y vs -2.0% est. & -2.6% in June; slower pace of contraction suggests industrial demand is picking up, driven by fiscal stimulus, Huabao Trust economist Nie Wen says
  • A second Chinese shipbuilder defaults on bond payment this yr
• Australia’s NAB business confidence index at 4 vs 5 in June
  • NAB sees RBA cuts next May and Aug., taking cash rate to 1%; previously forecast rate staying at 1.75% through 3Q 2017
  • AUD/NZD options expiring this week include strikes at 1.0900 for A$1.48b on Aug. 12: DTCC
• Kiwi falls for third day vs USD
  • Chance of RBNZ cutting rates by 50 bps has climbed to 15% vs 10% yesterday and zero a week ago, according to overnight index swaps; decision tomorrow; economists in survey expect 25-bp cut to 2.0%
  • Shadow board recommends RBNZ cuts rate to 2% on Aug. 11
  • Analysis: RBNZ guidance crucial to tempering kiwi resilience
• Yen strengthens 0.1% to 102.35 vs dollar
  • USD/JPY 102.00 for $825m expire today: DTCC; other USD/JPY options expiring this week include strikes at 103.00 for $1.52b on Aug. 11 and 102.50 for $1.79b on Aug. 12
• Won recovers from earlier loss, even as Finance Minister Yoo warns of delay to economic recovery because of corporate restructuring and external uncertainties, including protectionism
• Ringgit rises after OPEC flags meeting next month and predicts rebound in oil prices, sending crude to near 2-week high
• Philippines 2Q growth likely 7% y/y on election spending and higher infrastructure investment, Manila Bulletin reports, citing Economic Planning Secretary Pernia
  • Nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio drops below 50% in June, first time since early-1980s, ABS-CBN News reported on Aug. 8
  • June exports data tomorrow; est. -12.5% y/y vs -3.8% prior; weak reading could push USD/PHP toward 2-week high: Analysis