HALISTER1: INSIDE ASIA: Ringgit, Won Lead Gains After U.S. GDP Disappoints

INSIDE ASIA: Ringgit, Won Lead Gains After U.S. GDP Disappoints

(Bloomberg) -- Most Asian currencies gain after weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP pushes back the odds for a Fed hike.
  • Asian FX were also supported by China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI data, which at 50.6 is the highest since Feb. 2015, vs est. 48.8. Official July PMI data at 49.9 was lowest in five months
  • Asian currencies are firmer this morning due to the weaker dollar following Friday’s disappointing U.S. 2Q GDP, says Khoon Goh, head of Asia Research at ANZ
    • While China’s official PMI reading came in below expectations, this was offset by Caixin’s figures, which helped improve risk appetite
  • Malaysian ringgit and Korean won lead gains, while yen declines
  • JPY falls ahead of PM Abe’s detailed stimulus plan announcement tomorrow. 10-year JGB yield rises 5 bps to -0.145%, highest since Brexit
    • BOJ plans to drop 2-yr timeframe for its 2% inflation target, Nikkei reported on July 30
    • Investors may doubt BOJ’s stance toward additional easing, and rethink strategy of buying JGBs, says Naoya Oshikubo, rates strategist at Barclays
  • Koichi Hamada, one of Abe’s advisers, says he favors a declaration by policy makers that current measures are monetizing the nation’s debt
  • Aussie erases drop after China Caixin PMI came in higher than expected
    • June private new home sales +8.2% m/m, first increase in 3 mos., vs May -4.4%
    • Aussie may rise as economists and traders differ on RBA decision. RBA decision due tomorrow
  • Yuan diverges, rising onshore, while dropping offshore
  • Divergence between official and Caixin factory PMIs for July could be because smaller Chinese enterprises benefit more from yuan depreciation than larger companies, says David Qu, markets economist ANZ Bank China
  • Drop in China manufacturing PMI below 50 raises odds of RRR cut, Guosen Securities HK says
  • Won touches strongest since June 2015 and sovereign bonds rally
    • South Korea’s June current-account surplus widens 17% on month to record $12.2b
    • Comments from NY Fed President Dudley today that market pricing for Fed rate hikes appear to be too complacent and it is premature to rule out more rate hikes this year failed to give the dollar much of a leg up against Asian currencies: ANZ’s Goh
  • Ringgit rises as much as 1.0%, most since July 11. Brent crude jumps by as much as 3%, boosting sentiment for oil- producer
    • Goldman bond deals with 1MDB under Singapore central bank review: MAS statement on July 30
  • Rupiah advances. Indonesia’s July CPI expected today, with est. at +3.37% y/y vs June +3.45%
    • Policy makers should be more inventive in tackling global challenges, with prime challenge being how to nurture sustainability of growth while keeping monetary and financial stability in check: Bank Indonesia Governor
  • Baht gains, holding near 4-mo. high
    • Thailand’s July CPI est. 0.5% y/y, highest since Dec. 2014
    • Capital has flowed into Thai stock markets after Brexit vote as investors have positive views on Thailand, Finance Minister said on July 29
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Khoon Goh (Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd)
Naoya Oshikubo (Barclays PLC)
William Dudley (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

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