Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Risk aversion prevails as a steady stream of U.S. election polls show fluctuating leads and ahead of the monthly U.S. jobs report. JPY whipsaws around 103 as Nikkei index slides to a three-week low.

• U.S. non-farm payrolls due at 8:30pm HKT; Morgan Stanley and BMO have flagged downside risk to the jobs number given weak ADP. Survey suggests employers added 173,000 workers in October vs 156,000 in September
• Treasury curve flattens slightly as 10-year yield drops by 1bp to 1.805%; BBDXY rising for first time this week, +0.06%
• USD/JPY +0.08% to 103.06 vs 102.83-103.20 range
  • Trades back and forth around 103.00, driven by yen fixing flows and slumping Japanese stocks
  • Buy stops above 103.50 for leveraged and proprietary accounts, bids for Tokyo importers layered down to 102.50: trader
• AUD/USD -0.04% to 0.7679 vs 0.7674-0.7697 range
  • Fresh aussie shorts were put on during the rally seen in response to better-than-expected headline retail sales data, trader says
  • Leveraged funds sold above 0.7690, leaving buy stops above 0.7734 Oct. 20 high; option-related selling seen ahead of 0.7700 strikes
  • RBA forecasts little changed in quarterly statement
• EUR/USD -0.08% to 1.1096 vs 1.1088-1.1110 range
  • Euro 1-month risk reversals favoring calls over puts by most since February; chart here
• NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.