Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD keeping a bearish tone after yesterday’s surprisingly soft ISM factory data, amid typically low volumes before the monthly U.S. employment report.

• Medium-term USD bears could be looking at jobs gain below median estimate at 180k based on the ISM miss
  • Click here for chart showing relationship between ISM factory index and nonfarm jobs
• GBP/USD is in focus, holding above its 50-DMA which was breached yesterday for first time since Brexit
• USD/CHF is another possible indicator of broad USD weakness as pair continues to be capped below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s range; click here for chart
• Brent crude up 0.8% to $45.80/bbl, rising for first time this week
• Treasury 10-year yield up 1 bp to 1.584%
• USD/JPY consolidating above 55-DMA at 102.82 after hitting 104.00 yesterday for first time since late July
  • Any further rally would require fresh news supporting chances of a Fed rate hike, as well as expectations of BOJ easing, according to Bank of America
  • Sovereign curve for JGBs bear-steepens, with yields for 20-, 30- and 40-yr bonds all reaching the highest level in five months

• NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.