Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Ringgit jumps, heading for biggest weekly gain in three months, amid risk-on sentiment across most Asian currencies.

• Exports fell 0.9% y/y in May, missing median est. of 2% gain in Bloomberg survey; only one forecaster out of 17 had anticipated a decline in exports for the month
• Imports rose 3.1% y/y vs median est. of 2.9% drop; as a result, trade surplus narrowed to 3.26b ringgit from 9.06b ringgit in April
• Ringgit up 0.8% at 3.9980 per dollar; is up 2.3% so far this week, set for the biggest weekly gain since week ended April 1, according to onshore prices
  • USD/MYR resistance: 4.0452-61, convergence of 50- and 100-DMAs; 4.1690, 200-DMA
  • USD/MYR support: 3.9723, 61.8% Fibo retracement of rally from April 13 to June 2; 3.9625, April 18 high
• Ringgit’s one-month forwards fall 0.3% to 4.0019 per dollar
• Balance of evidence shifting in favor of looser monetary policy from Bank Negara, Societe Generale writes in note; says growth dynamics have deteriorated significantly, but core inflation probably needs to moderate further for BNM to ease in short term
  • Sees scope for 50 bps reduction in policy rate over the next year
  • Keeps recommendation to be long 7-yr MGS vs paying 7-yr MYR NDIRS; in FX still likes being short MYR vs IDR