HALISTER1: INSIDE TAIWAN: TWD Falls for Second Day Ahead of Yellen’s Speech

INSIDE TAIWAN: TWD Falls for Second Day Ahead of Yellen’s Speech

(Bloomberg) -- TWD declines to lowest since Aug. 1, as investors sell Asian currencies ahead of Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech. Taiex retreats below 9,000 psychological level.
  • TWD drops as much as 0.8% to 31.854; currently down 0.5% to 31.790 per dollar
  • July export orders due 4 pm; est. -0.9% y/y, vs. -2.4% in June
    • July unemployment rate unchanged at 3.96% vs est. 3.97%
  • TWD softening as both foreign investors and govt-owned banks are selling: traders
  • TWD correction could continue next few days ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium, Maybank senior FX analyst Christopher Wong says
    • Recent Fed officials’ hawkish comments and declining equity mkt also play a role in weighing down TWD
    • Next resistance for USD/TWD at 31.90; move beyond that may see pair test 32.12
    • Correction unlikely to persist as Yellen probably prefer optionality with regards to timing of rate hike and reiterate recent comments from FOMC minutes
    • Look for opportunities to re-establish Asia ex-Japan longs
  • Overseas investors keep dumping local stocks for a second day, selling net TWD2.6b ($81.1m)
    • Taiex index falls 0.58% to 8,981.81, lowest close since July 15
  • Taiwan bonds falls with U.S. Treasuries, but investors still wait and see ahead of Yellen speech, Capital Securities bond trader Tommy Gu says
    • Yield of 10-yr govt note may see resistance at 0.65%-0.67%
  • Yield of 0.625% govt bond due Sept 2026 rises 1 bp to 0.6455%
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Christopher Wong (Malayan Banking Bhd)
Tommy Gu (Capital Securities Corp)

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