HALISTER1: Investors Finding It ’Impossible’ to Price 10Y UST: FTN

Investors Finding It ’Impossible’ to Price 10Y UST: FTN

(Bloomberg) -- Bond market hasn’t been able to find a “comfortable position” during the last 15 hours, FTN strategist Jim Vogel writes in note Wednesday.
  • Investors are trying to price a “fair value” for 10Y UST and “that has proven impossible today”; volume has been “scattered”
  • Anxiety about 10Y UST auction suggests “big problems” Thursday digesting 30Y auction
  • “Risk-averse longs got trapped and had to sell”
  • New short sellers front-ran liquidations by central banks and others concerned about trade/currencies with new administration
  • Liquidity disappeared except in 3bp jumps up the yield ladder
  • Volume selling has been “punishing” since midnight
  • While buyers have stepped in to take advantage of steeper yield curve and most attractive yields since June, few are going to match selling strength motivated by “fundamental and technical fears”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Jim Vogel (Ftn Financial)

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