Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- While the outcome of the Italian referendum over constitutional reform on Dec. 4 remains too close to call, risks of extreme political instability are likely overstated, JPMorgan economist Marco Protopapa writes in a note.

• Even in the event of a ‘No’ outcome, he sees continuity of Renzi’s premiership as the most likely scenario under the current polls
• A lead below 2% for ‘No’ in most recent polls is not sufficient to conclude that a ‘No’ outcome is much more likely, with a ‘Yes’ outcome within the realm of possibility
• Most likely scenario is a victory of ‘No’ by a small margin
  • Renzi likely to offer his resignation to the president of the Republic, who would refuse the resignation and invite Renzi to verify that he has the support of a majority in the parliament
  • A reshuffle of some cabinet positions could be in order