Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A Fed rate increase in April is “fairly unlikely,” June remains base case assuming recent “uptick” in inflation/wages continues along with further labor mkt gains, BofAML’s Michael Hanson and Mark Cabana write in note.

• BofAML sticks with call for June, even with only 20% mkt odds of a move then
• “Notable message” repeated in FOMC’s March minutes, details of SEP is policy makers’ worry about downside risks
  • Some stabilization, if not improvement, in global growth would be needed for Fed to hike again; otherwise, Fed needs signs weakness abroad isn’t spilling into U.S.
• “We do expect a somewhat better data mix into the June meeting”
• Reference to Fed having “little room” to ease if needed implies that further unconventional easing may be “close to its limits”