HALISTER1: Most Primary Dealers See 2 Fed Hikes This Year Starting in June

Most Primary Dealers See 2 Fed Hikes This Year Starting in June

(Bloomberg) -- While most primary dealers are still expecting the Fed to next raise rates in June, at least four see a rate increase coming sooner.
  • Fed fund futures show a 36% chance of a hike in March, ~60% by May and ~74% by June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
  • NOTE: Forecasts surveyed Feb. 22-23
  • PRIMARY DEALER VIEWS
  • BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
    • Expects next hike in June, followed by hikes in September and December
  • BARCLAYS
    • Expects next hike in September and 2 hikes in 2017
  • BMO
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second hike in December
  • BNP PARIBAS
    • Expects next hike in May and sees 3 moves in 2017; read more
  • CANTOR FITZGERALD
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with another hike in December
  • CITI
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with following hike in December
  • CREDIT SUISSE
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second move in December
  • DAIWA
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 3 hikes in 2017, with following hikes in September and December
  • DEUTSCHE BANK
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second move in September
  • GOLDMAN SACHS
    • Chance of a June hike at 40%, March 30% and May 20%; sees 3 hikes in 2017
  • HSBC
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with following move in December
  • JEFFERIES
    • Expects next hike in March, though says it’s a close call between March and June
  • JPMORGAN
    • Expects next hike in May and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second hike in September; read more
  • MERRILL LYNCH
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second move in December
  • MIZUHO
    • Expects next hike in May and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with following hike to come in 3Q
  • MORGAN STANLEY
    • Expects next hike in September and sees 2 hikes in 2017; read more
  • NOMURA
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017; says there’s upside risk for 3 hikes in 2017
  • RBC
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second move in December
  • RBS
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second hike in December
  • SOCIETE GENERALE
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with following hike in December
  • TD SECURITIES
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with following move in December; says there’s upside risk for 3 hikes in 2017
  • UBS
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with second hike in December
  • WELLS FARGO
    • Expects next hike in June and sees 2 hikes in 2017, with following hike in December
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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