HALISTER1: Offshore China Govt Bonds Provide Value at Front-End: StanChart

Offshore China Govt Bonds Provide Value at Front-End: StanChart

(Bloomberg) -- Front-end of CNH China government bond is favored due to flat yield curve and likely limited easing near term, Standard Chartered Bank head of China macro strategy Becky Liu writes in note today.
  • Sees value for long-term holders given significant yield pick-up over onshore govt bonds and very limited supply ahead
  • Forecast for CNH China Govt bond auction Thursday:
    • 3-year 3.45-3.55%; 5-year: 3.55-3.65%; 10-year: 3.60-3.70%; 15-year: 3.90-4.00%; 30-year: 4.30-4.40%
  • Expects weaker response to auction as tight CNH liquidity and unattractive after-swap valuations may crimp demand from local commercial banks
  • Onshore CGB yield to rise further; PBOC to tighten liquidity in both onshore and offshore near-term due to FX pressure
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Becky Liu (Standard Chartered Bank)

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