Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- USD/PHP may retest July 12 high of 47.500 near term if Philippines’ May trade deficit is worse than economists predict, Bloomberg strategist Andrew Robinson writes.

• Trade deficit widened to $1.33b in May from $2.28b in April, the 11th monthly deficit in a row, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; ests. range from -$1.65b to +$6.55b
  • Deficit missed survey est. in April, data released June 24 showed; peso fell 0.9% to 46.950 that day
• Imports likely rose 28.4% y/y in May after 29.2% gain in April, other survey shows
  • Both sets of data due tomorrow at 9am local time
• Imports probably rose 25% y/y in May driven by demand for capital, raw-material and intermediate goods, Standard Chartered wrote in July 22 note
  • Given the divergence between domestic and external demand, trade deficit likely remained wide
• USD/PHP up 0.1% at 47.175 today, after climbing 0.6% last wk
  • MACD is rising, on verge of crossing above signal line and already above zero
• NOTE: Andrew Robinson is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice